Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 91614.667047 96613.679937 101608.623164 106970.571381 112560.075063 118211.529763 124354.017000
2025-06-08 82577.532802 90174.782478 97976.464173 106576.378030 115779.488074 125322.094932 135953.952586
2025-06-15 77458.499956 86936.052750 96878.986094 108066.135061 120280.417221 133189.064954 147840.534201
2025-06-22 73125.063974 83993.588320 95602.402028 108888.623779 123636.767832 139468.486761 157710.542509
2025-06-29 69137.388965 81058.602596 93995.217498 109024.019109 125948.302747 144362.549860 165856.455850
2025-07-06 65691.177014 78465.236019 92527.425475 109084.610241 127971.065955 148767.354928 173320.122113
2025-07-13 63800.833703 77480.465469 92732.201860 110903.824165 131866.574517 155191.000989 183002.451302
2025-07-20 61981.472096 76446.828900 92766.928028 112426.133508 135341.863144 161084.566559 192058.520891
2025-07-27 59988.202457 75093.136210 92328.523496 113307.663863 138003.046333 165995.656939 199963.178239
2025-08-03 57722.141359 73306.014158 91283.948039 113388.098331 139654.239308 169684.759088 206420.542469
2025-08-10 55808.928407 71852.990195 90554.900402 113768.078659 141597.071531 173671.350498 213203.158156
2025-08-17 53867.035846 70282.944243 89612.065244 113824.446970 143099.431953 177101.467737 219311.210727
2025-08-24 52619.631983 69538.171725 89652.033205 115068.121470 146047.626894 182292.623310 227592.122293
2025-08-31 50666.582748 67851.217167 88486.334962 114796.655038 147133.191903 185249.117044 233216.764761
2025-09-07 49780.382804 67460.826413 88881.365294 116412.474006 150498.972905 190943.134698 242150.902784
2025-09-14 48597.271346 66646.501136 88709.690539 117293.765043 152943.162646 195518.422972 249748.645190
2025-09-21 47136.072188 65424.224350 87981.061384 117439.307239 154447.891460 198934.425660 255937.669707
2025-09-28 45719.429054 64210.941745 87219.968917 117504.058023 155820.842124 202170.723023 261904.416413
2025-10-05 45227.202580 64179.750931 87944.420764 119436.413058 159527.621474 208289.028452 271443.857869
2025-10-12 44625.229113 63978.569051 88431.228892 121053.071441 162835.108641 213925.649261 280420.134262
2025-10-19 43760.277342 63398.023632 88402.888000 121989.117548 165270.684519 218481.091968 288074.609609
2025-10-26 42575.805139 62353.252911 87738.187901 122074.522814 166601.793372 221646.731979 294000.556035
2025-11-02 41577.801100 61529.799668 87336.369896 122477.971856 168323.980511 225297.993256 300544.263212